orecast, signaling a potentially challenging year ahead. The company now expects revenue for 2025 to fall between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, a steep reduction from its previous forecast of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion issued in September. This adjustment is driven by a range of factors that could hinder growth as Moderna works to cut costs and expand its product portfolio.
CEO Stéphane Bancel pointed to several key headwinds impacting Moderna’s outlook. One major factor is increasing competition in the COVID-19 vaccine market. Moderna’s share of the U.S. retail market for COVID shots has already dropped from 48% in 2023 to just 40% at the close of 2024, with the company bracing for further declines in 2025.
Additionally, falling vaccination rates are also weighing on the company’s prospects. Vaccination rates in the U.S. retail market fell by approximately 7% in the fall of 2024 compared to the previous year, contributing to the more cautious outlook.
These challenges, combined with ongoing efforts to diversify its portfolio, have created uncertainty about Moderna’s future growth, leading to a significant dip in stock price. Investors will be closely watching the company’s next steps as it navigates a more competitive landscape in 2025.
